Wednesday, November 19, 2008

Explanation on CDS - Vanguard's Bogle

http://www.iddmagazine.com/issues/2008_44/187499-1.html?partner=dealbook&page=1

Suppose you have a house and you insure it against fire for $200,000. Now, suppose that you have 130 neighbors, 65 of whom are betting that it will burn down and 65 of whom are betting that it won't. And, that's approximately the ratio we have got here.

It's supposed to be about $2 trillion debt instruments covered by CDS and $62 [trillion] or $65 trillion of credit default swaps. Half of them are in one side and half of them are in the other. So, you could say "well what's the matter with having your neighbors insuring or betting your house will burn down or betting it won't burn down?"

What's the matter is you have to keep a close eye out for arsonists. So, we have arsonists out there playing the CDS market, to sink your firm, make money for themselves and their hedge funds. They want those premiums to go way up and playing games like that