Wednesday, May 12, 2010

Property bubble?

Read this article.

My view.
All bubbles will burst one day. What goes up must come down. Any investment, including property, can go up to an unrealistic high price, but cannot stay there forever. It can only be sustained at a level that is affordable to the buyers, i.e. relative to the average national income.

Like Singapore, Dubai also had limited land. It created a property bubble that has now collapsed. Singapore will not be exempted.

There is one key difference in Singapore, and that is the role of the HDB and the CPF. The savings in the CPF had been used not only to service the mortgage payment but also to prop up the property market (by taking second priority to bank mortgage). HDB had been tolerant in allowing unemployed owners to delay payment of their mortgage installments.

In the case of Singapore, I expect that the property market will not collapse, but will remain dormant for many years. It will not show the kind of appreciation that had happened in the past. The return on property, as an investment, will be low.

Someone sent me this link:
http://www.coverville500.com/real-estates/the-next-dubai-real-estate-property-bubble-mike-maloney-of-gold-and-silver-inc