Deflation

When the Japanese economy busted at the end of the 1980s, it went through a deflation that has lasted nearly 20 years. Some commentators said that the US economy may go through a period of deflation but they are optimistic that the economy is more robust and will recover. I am less optimistic. I think that the underlying weakness of the free market system , which contributed to asset bubbles, may affect the US economy as badly as it had affected the Japan economy.

During a period of economy growth, people are willing to borrow and invest in assets, leading to inflation. During a period of deflation, people are not willing to borrow and invest and the excess capacity will take a long time to be utilized. More people will remain unemployed and this will worsen the deflationary cycle.

The second world war ended the deflation of the 1930s. We may need a third world war to end this deflation. But it is also possible to find a more peaceful solution - and that requires to restructure the global economic system into a more socialist type, using the Keynesian approach or its modern version.

Tan Kin Lian