Hi Mr. Tan
Recently there is a debate going on whether the SMRT trains in Singapore are overly crowded or not. The SMRT doesn't think very much of it as evidenced in their CEO's untactful remarks, whilst practically everyone blogging on the internet curse and swear at how bad the situation had become.
Looking at the case again, I just discovered that everything hinges on a statistic which is provided by SMRT Quote:...This averages 3.8 passengers per sq m, lower than that of major cities like London..... Unquote.
So 3.8 passengere per sq m is the agreed benchmark. I have no problem with that. But look at the word AVERAGE. Therein lies the solution to the puzzle. It's not about the number 3.8 neither is it about the techie word crushload. It's about AVERAGE.
AVERAGE is a very dangerous concept if not properly managed. If the annual salary of the PM is $3 million and the annual salary of the rest of the 9 ordinary workers in the PMO (PrimeMinister's Office) is $50,000 then mathematically the average annual salary of the people in the PMO is $305,000 per person? In statistical theory there are median, and mode, standard deviation, etc to refine the imperfect concept of averaging. In the real world, we also need to know more about the model used for "averaging".
How does SMRT calculate its AVERAGE crush load? Is it over time average between peak period and non peak period per station basis? How many stations are selected? Which are the stations selected for the averaging? Are newer stations which have lower load factor bundled together for averaging?
Statistics is a powerful tool which can often lead to wrong conclusions. Sometimes it is so powerful that it can be used as a tool to make one feel complacent and look good. And those who ignore the possibly distorted conclusions might be told to make other choices because the sysem is just doing fine - on "average".
rex
Saturday, July 3, 2010
Taxi Automated Booking System (TABS) - Simulation
I have developed a taxi automated booking system (TABS). It is now being runned in simulation mode. A taxi company is likely to use this system with a fleet of 600 taxis. The simulation will reflect the real life situation quite closely. The booking fee is cheaper than the normal booking service.
A customer who wish to book a taxi will send a SMS to the server. You can try this service by sending a SMS as follows:
- Starhub mobile: Send "CAB " to 82028866
- M1 and Singtel Mobile: Send "CAB pppppp " to 82028866
Note: pppppp is the postal code of your location (not required for Starhub customers).
If a taxi is available within 2 km of your location, you will receive a SMS to call the mobile phone of the taxi driver. If no taxi is available, a SMS will be sent to you, saying that you have been placed in the taxi queue.
Please join this trial. During the simulation run, you will get a simulated mobile phone number (i.e. not a real number) of the taxi.
PRIZE: I will be giving a Tangram book to one person, picked at random, from those who participated in the trial for each of the next three days. Good luck.
Tan Kin Lian
A customer who wish to book a taxi will send a SMS to the server. You can try this service by sending a SMS as follows:
- Starhub mobile: Send "CAB " to 82028866
- M1 and Singtel Mobile: Send "CAB pppppp " to 82028866
Note: pppppp is the postal code of your location (not required for Starhub customers).
If a taxi is available within 2 km of your location, you will receive a SMS to call the mobile phone of the taxi driver. If no taxi is available, a SMS will be sent to you, saying that you have been placed in the taxi queue.
Please join this trial. During the simulation run, you will get a simulated mobile phone number (i.e. not a real number) of the taxi.
PRIZE: I will be giving a Tangram book to one person, picked at random, from those who participated in the trial for each of the next three days. Good luck.
Tan Kin Lian
Invest in STI ETF
Dear Mr Tan,
I have read through some of the articles on your blog and am very impressed by your investment knowledge. I heard from my Income agent that you are very experienced with investment and gives excellent advice.
I have a savings account with Standard Chartered and would like to start investing in unit trust. From your experience, what is the difference between investing through the bank or through those brokerage firm like Phillips Securities?
Many people told me to invest in STI ETF, is it unit trust and is it a good time to invest now? How about REITS? Are these unit trusts?
Josephine
REPLY
STI ETF is for long term investment. If you invest your monthly savings, anytime is a good time. Do not try to time the market. If it better to buy through a stockbroker, rather than a bank. Philips Securities is okay. It is also all right to invest in unit trust, provided that the expense ratio is less than 1%.
Do not invest in an insurance policy as the "effect of deduction" is too high, giving you a poor return. Read my book, Practical Guide on Financial Plannng, available at www.easysearch.sg/ishop.
I have read through some of the articles on your blog and am very impressed by your investment knowledge. I heard from my Income agent that you are very experienced with investment and gives excellent advice.
I have a savings account with Standard Chartered and would like to start investing in unit trust. From your experience, what is the difference between investing through the bank or through those brokerage firm like Phillips Securities?
Many people told me to invest in STI ETF, is it unit trust and is it a good time to invest now? How about REITS? Are these unit trusts?
Josephine
REPLY
STI ETF is for long term investment. If you invest your monthly savings, anytime is a good time. Do not try to time the market. If it better to buy through a stockbroker, rather than a bank. Philips Securities is okay. It is also all right to invest in unit trust, provided that the expense ratio is less than 1%.
Do not invest in an insurance policy as the "effect of deduction" is too high, giving you a poor return. Read my book, Practical Guide on Financial Plannng, available at www.easysearch.sg/ishop.
Talks on Financial Planning to Students
Calling teachers or student leaders. If you wish to organise a talk on financial planning for the students, read this brochure. It can make a lot of difference to the future financial well-being of the students.
Holland vs Germany
I watched my first live World Cup match over television in 1974. It was the Finals between Holland and Germany. The star on the Holland team was Johan Cruff. Holland scored the first goal within 2 minutes. Germany was led by the legendary Franz Beckenbauer and won the Finals on 2-1.
Here is an exciting recount of this historic final. http://easyweb.easynet.co.uk/~goldkeep/Holland74/WGermany.htm
I expect to see these two teams play at the Finals of the World Cup 2010. If anyone takes and win this bet, make a donation to FISCA (http://www.fisca.sg/)
Tan Kin Lian
Here is an exciting recount of this historic final. http://easyweb.easynet.co.uk/~goldkeep/Holland74/WGermany.htm
I expect to see these two teams play at the Finals of the World Cup 2010. If anyone takes and win this bet, make a donation to FISCA (http://www.fisca.sg/)
Tan Kin Lian
Developing our own talents
In 1998, France won the World Cup. The team comprised of many players from the former French colonies in Africa.
This event prompted Singapore's Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong to raise the possibility of Singapore entering the World Cup using "foreign talents". The Football Association of Singapore took up the challenge and set the target of Goal 2010 for Singapore to win the World Cup (but thge goal was later clarified as participation in the Finals). This goal was subsequently dropped as the task was deemed to be impossible.
During this period, Germany went about in its own way to develop its youth squad and soccer training program. The result can be seen in the spectacular performance of the Germany team, the product of its youth development program, in World Cup 2010.
We can contrast the approach taken by the two countries. One decided to rely on "foreign talents". The other decided to train and develop its own people.
This is a lesson for Singapore.
Tan Kin Lian
This event prompted Singapore's Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong to raise the possibility of Singapore entering the World Cup using "foreign talents". The Football Association of Singapore took up the challenge and set the target of Goal 2010 for Singapore to win the World Cup (but thge goal was later clarified as participation in the Finals). This goal was subsequently dropped as the task was deemed to be impossible.
During this period, Germany went about in its own way to develop its youth squad and soccer training program. The result can be seen in the spectacular performance of the Germany team, the product of its youth development program, in World Cup 2010.
We can contrast the approach taken by the two countries. One decided to rely on "foreign talents". The other decided to train and develop its own people.
This is a lesson for Singapore.
Tan Kin Lian
World Cup and Management Science
Mr Tan Kin Lian.
It was an amazing game that Germany managed to beat Argentina 4 to 0. World Cup is really fascinating. However, World Cup also teaches us lessons in management. Germany has displayed discipline and teamwork in the game against Argentina.
While mega stars provide the excitement, results are delivered by discipline and teamwork.
Lothar Matthaus made an interesting comment that Michael Ballack’s absence was a blessing in disguise! He said “ …. I’m genuinely upset for Michael Ballack (injury) but his absence has helped Germany. I don’t mean that in a spiteful way, but Ballack was arguably holding up a number of players who have now blossomed. Each of them has taken on a little more responsibility and Germany is playing with far more pace. Ballack often took a lot of pace out of the game, but that wouldn’t fit the mentality of this young team. Missing out is a personal catastrophe for Michael, but it has benefited Germany.”
By the way, Germany has one of the younger squad. Lothar Matthaus made an interesting management statement that teamwork is more important than individual stars and fresh legs are what it takes to win tournament.
Cashew Nut
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2010/teams/germany/7868860/Argentina-v-Germany-Lothar-Matthaus-says-Germany-are-better-without-Michael-Ballack.html
My observation
I have come comments to make about Singapore's own Goal 2010. See separate blog.
It was an amazing game that Germany managed to beat Argentina 4 to 0. World Cup is really fascinating. However, World Cup also teaches us lessons in management. Germany has displayed discipline and teamwork in the game against Argentina.
While mega stars provide the excitement, results are delivered by discipline and teamwork.
Lothar Matthaus made an interesting comment that Michael Ballack’s absence was a blessing in disguise! He said “ …. I’m genuinely upset for Michael Ballack (injury) but his absence has helped Germany. I don’t mean that in a spiteful way, but Ballack was arguably holding up a number of players who have now blossomed. Each of them has taken on a little more responsibility and Germany is playing with far more pace. Ballack often took a lot of pace out of the game, but that wouldn’t fit the mentality of this young team. Missing out is a personal catastrophe for Michael, but it has benefited Germany.”
By the way, Germany has one of the younger squad. Lothar Matthaus made an interesting management statement that teamwork is more important than individual stars and fresh legs are what it takes to win tournament.
Cashew Nut
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup-2010/teams/germany/7868860/Argentina-v-Germany-Lothar-Matthaus-says-Germany-are-better-without-Michael-Ballack.html
My observation
I have come comments to make about Singapore's own Goal 2010. See separate blog.
Business simulation game (BEST)
The BEST simulation game gives you the practice to submit a business plan on the pricing and market of four products in a competitive environment. The game is played over 7 days and allows you to submit your business plan for one year daily. The actual time required to be spent is 15 to 30 minutes. You can read more about how to play this game by downloading this Player Guide.
The game can be played for various types of business, e.g. insurance, banking, hotel, airline, manufacturing, retail.
If you are interested to play the game, give your particulars here. I will create a game when there is sufficient players for the industry.
If you have played before, and wish to create a game for several of our friends, send an e-mail to kinlian@gmail.com and give the e-mail address of all the players. Indicate the type of industry that you wish to compete in.
Update:
One insurance company is actively using the game to train its head office and branch managers.
A participant who register through my blog likes the game and wishes to introduce his friends to play the game. I will create a game for his group.
My friend, who is studying in university in UK is organising a game for his classmates.
The game can be played for various types of business, e.g. insurance, banking, hotel, airline, manufacturing, retail.
If you are interested to play the game, give your particulars here. I will create a game when there is sufficient players for the industry.
If you have played before, and wish to create a game for several of our friends, send an e-mail to kinlian@gmail.com and give the e-mail address of all the players. Indicate the type of industry that you wish to compete in.
Update:
One insurance company is actively using the game to train its head office and branch managers.
A participant who register through my blog likes the game and wishes to introduce his friends to play the game. I will create a game for his group.
My friend, who is studying in university in UK is organising a game for his classmates.
Low income people and Medishield
A Shin Min journalist asked me to comment on a survey finding that many low income and elderly people do not have adequate health insurance, and that they distrust insurance agents.
My comments are:
1. The low income and elderly persons should be insured under Medishield, which is low cost and can be paid from Medisave.
2. They should be treated in subsidised B2 or C wards to avoid large medical bills.
3. They do not need to buy additional medical insurance or to have unnecessary, duplicate cover
4. The government should open a window period for the uninsured persons to be accepted into Medishield now, without the need for health declaration.
For those who distrust insurance agents due to bad personal experience, they should read my book, Practical Guide on Financial Planning to be educated about health and life insurance, or should attend the educational talk organised by FISCA.
I suggested to the Shin Ming journalist to translate topics from my book into Chinese and print it in a series in their newspaper.
Tan Kin Lian
My comments are:
1. The low income and elderly persons should be insured under Medishield, which is low cost and can be paid from Medisave.
2. They should be treated in subsidised B2 or C wards to avoid large medical bills.
3. They do not need to buy additional medical insurance or to have unnecessary, duplicate cover
4. The government should open a window period for the uninsured persons to be accepted into Medishield now, without the need for health declaration.
For those who distrust insurance agents due to bad personal experience, they should read my book, Practical Guide on Financial Planning to be educated about health and life insurance, or should attend the educational talk organised by FISCA.
I suggested to the Shin Ming journalist to translate topics from my book into Chinese and print it in a series in their newspaper.
Tan Kin Lian
Large medical bill
My friend's wife suffered from last stage cancer. The private specialist recommended a treatment with an estimated cost of $50,000. Eventually, the total cost increased to $200,000 and the wife passed away. Apart from losing his wife, who was in the mid 50s, he also spent a large sum of money.
I asked him if the doctor had given him an assessment of the chance of recovery after spending such a large sum. He was not well advised. He trusted the doctor to do his best, but it failed.
My observation
It is better to get a second opinion from another doctor, who is not earning the large fee from the treatment. The second specialist does not have any vested interested to recommend a costly treatment that has a low chance of success. The second opinion may cost some money, but is worth spending, to get a better decision.
Tan Kin Lian
I asked him if the doctor had given him an assessment of the chance of recovery after spending such a large sum. He was not well advised. He trusted the doctor to do his best, but it failed.
My observation
It is better to get a second opinion from another doctor, who is not earning the large fee from the treatment. The second specialist does not have any vested interested to recommend a costly treatment that has a low chance of success. The second opinion may cost some money, but is worth spending, to get a better decision.
Tan Kin Lian
Wisdom on how to live life (book 2) - Review
By A. J. Bray "Adrian Bray" (lowestoft, suffolk)
This book is a follow on from the author's first book 'Wisdom on How to live life: Transforming Earth into Heaven. I gave that a 5 star rating and I have done also for this Bk2 with the same title.
Over several years I have bought and read 10's of self help and psychology books in the hope that I could get to understand about how life and human interactions work; I was also interested in reading about our afterlife when we die. To be fair, several have been excellant, for example Eckhart Tolle's The Power of Now, even though it took much concentration to fully understand his message. However, I consider Author Wong's books to be much easier to comprehend and I am a changed person for having read them, such is the impact they have had on me.
I have come to the conclusion that most humans start from the wrong place because 'the world' values happiness through materialism which, in turn, demands economic growth. The first is short term, whilst the latter is not sustainable through finite resources. As this author points out we are spiritual beings and part of the divine; we manifest through the divine and shall return to the divine when we complete each incarnation. He explains reincarnation in a way that makes so much sense. All the points are made in a great conversational style between Guru Harry and Tom. Several overlap from BK1, but that only serves to reinforce the message that we are eternal beings who are interconnected with each other which means the end of competition to be replaced with co-operation, making for a fairer, more satisfying life during our time here on earth.
I consider that everthing written in these books has brought me to the end of my search for the meaning of life and death in a way that no other book(s) has and if I put its teachings into practice it will inevitably lead me to a more peaceful existence. It is my hope that after reading these two books they will do likewise for you too!
Available here.
This book is a follow on from the author's first book 'Wisdom on How to live life: Transforming Earth into Heaven. I gave that a 5 star rating and I have done also for this Bk2 with the same title.
Over several years I have bought and read 10's of self help and psychology books in the hope that I could get to understand about how life and human interactions work; I was also interested in reading about our afterlife when we die. To be fair, several have been excellant, for example Eckhart Tolle's The Power of Now, even though it took much concentration to fully understand his message. However, I consider Author Wong's books to be much easier to comprehend and I am a changed person for having read them, such is the impact they have had on me.
I have come to the conclusion that most humans start from the wrong place because 'the world' values happiness through materialism which, in turn, demands economic growth. The first is short term, whilst the latter is not sustainable through finite resources. As this author points out we are spiritual beings and part of the divine; we manifest through the divine and shall return to the divine when we complete each incarnation. He explains reincarnation in a way that makes so much sense. All the points are made in a great conversational style between Guru Harry and Tom. Several overlap from BK1, but that only serves to reinforce the message that we are eternal beings who are interconnected with each other which means the end of competition to be replaced with co-operation, making for a fairer, more satisfying life during our time here on earth.
I consider that everthing written in these books has brought me to the end of my search for the meaning of life and death in a way that no other book(s) has and if I put its teachings into practice it will inevitably lead me to a more peaceful existence. It is my hope that after reading these two books they will do likewise for you too!
Available here.
Poor service from agent
Hi Mr Tan,
My sister-in-law recently wrote in to X to feedback and complain about one of their agents. However, the response from the company was not quite what we expected. Is there anything that you could advise us to do? Or would you be able to post our letter on your website?
COMPLAINT
1. It took X 2 weeks to give me a written reply
2. The reply has not sufficiently given us the assurance that the next agent will be any different from the one that gave us an appalling experience.
3. It still does not answer the questions posed with regard to how your agents are trained, and what kind of action you will be taking.
4. X did not take this feedback seriously and did not call to verify what happened
5. The agent did not bother to call the policyholder to apologize.
6. It seems that this sort of behaviour by the agent is encouraged by X.
My sister-in-law recently wrote in to X to feedback and complain about one of their agents. However, the response from the company was not quite what we expected. Is there anything that you could advise us to do? Or would you be able to post our letter on your website?
COMPLAINT
1. It took X 2 weeks to give me a written reply
2. The reply has not sufficiently given us the assurance that the next agent will be any different from the one that gave us an appalling experience.
3. It still does not answer the questions posed with regard to how your agents are trained, and what kind of action you will be taking.
4. X did not take this feedback seriously and did not call to verify what happened
5. The agent did not bother to call the policyholder to apologize.
6. It seems that this sort of behaviour by the agent is encouraged by X.
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