Suggestion to stimulate the Singapore economy - Money multiplier

Dear Mr Tan,
I wish to submit the following suggestion to stimulate the Singapore economy

1) First, the government to issue cash voucher with mutiple nomination of $100 with expiry of 1 year. This voucher would be sent out to all Singaporean.

2) With this voucher, the catch is that it must be spend with any SG establishment with minimum purchase of $150 in a single receipt.

3) So, it would have the immediate desired money mutiplier effect for demand within the expiry.

4) SG establishment receiving these $100 voucher through customer payment can be creative by paying part of their employee pay package with these $100 voucher based on $80 employee wage (opt in basis by individual employee depending on their need for these voucher). This would be implied improvement of the firm cashflow as the more voucher which the firm collects mean his sales turnover has improved. And, by paying voucher to employee at employee option, it free up some cash particularly the profit make when the voucher has to be spend with additional $50 cash.

5) The next catch is that this $100 voucher has a depreciating effect that by end of the expiry date, the remaining value which could be converted to cash through SG bank is $80. The reasoning for this approach is to further stimulate those SG industries particularly those with high profit margin such as retail store, high end products and capacity measured establishments such as Concert, Cinema and exhibition space which having 20% discount (based on proceed of $80) would not be an issue rather than the actual sales volume.

6)Inevitably, I believe that with these $100 voucher, demand and supply would create a secondary trading market for this voucher during the expiry date which would further spur up comsumption and believe the government through their various agencies could also snap up these vouchers to stimulate further.

Simpl

Measures to stimulate the economy

First posted on 22 Nov 2008

Most countries adopt the following measures to stimulate a slowing economy:
> capital spending, e.g. build infrastructure, roads, bridges, etc
> reduce tax, i.e. consumption, income or profit tax
> give cash cheques to consumers to spend

Which method is better? I believe that a combination of measures are necessary. A lower rate of consumption tax (e.g. GST) will encourage people to spend and will stimulate the economy. Cash cheques for consumers may results in some of the money being saved, and not used for spending. But it can help the cash flow of the lower income people.

So far, no country has adopted the following measure (which is my preference):
> give a credit line to consumers at a low rate of interest - subject to a cap.

This credit line, which is given to someone who has lost a job, can help to pay the mortgages and meet the monthly expenses. It reduces borrowing on credit cards or other sources that can add to the interest burden. This credit line will encourage the people with jobs to continue their normal spending (as they do not need to increase their savings in case of retrenchment). More details in this article.

In many countries, there is no need for this relief loan as the retrenched workers can get unemployment benefit. This scheme is important for many Asian countries that do not have unemployment insurance.

Jobs Credit Scheme

Will the Jobs Credit Scheme save jobs and help the unemployed? Is there a better way to spend the $4.5 billion?  Read my views in this article.

Relief loans to replace loss of earnings

First posted on 18 Nov 2008

PM Lee said that our finances are sound. The Government will implement measures to stimulate the ecoomy.

The recent methods to stimulate the economy are:
a) Spend on infrastructure works (i.e. Singapore and China approach)
b) Give money to the people to spend (i.e the US stimulus package)

These methods are good. I wish to suggest a third method:
c) Allow each person to apply for a relief loan for the loss or reduction of earnings

Here is how the relief loan works:
1. The borrower can apply for a relief loan to replace the loss or reduction of earnings.
2. This loan will carry interest at 2.5% p.a.
3. The total borrowing can be subject to a cap of say $50,000
4. The loan can be repaid at any time, when the borrower has excess earnings.
5. It will be a first charge on the sale or your property or CPF savings
6. The CPF savings cannot be withdrawn for investments, while there is an outstanding relief loan

The relief loan will help the affected person to pay the mortgage and carry on the daily life with dignity. This facility will provide the assurance for the employed people to carry out their daily life without cutting back on their expenditure drastically, although they are expected to be more careful and frugal. They will follow SM Goh's advice to continue to spend and keep the economy moving.

If mortgages continue to be paid, the property values will be somewhat protected. The fall will be modest. The lower price will encourage other people to buy properties.

How does the Government manage the task of assessing and approving these relief loans? I suggest that they outsource it to the banks and the financial adviser firms, who will carry out the assessment to the expected standard in return for an agreed fee. They have many representatives who can be retrained to process these relief loans. It will create useful jobs for these representatives.

This concept is especially relevant to Singapore, as we do not have any unemployment benefit. A relief loan can be a good alternative to help the affected people.

TOC: Social Justice and Fairness

First posted on 7 Dec 2008 - rally organised by The Online Citizen

The theme for this rally is “Social Justice and Fairness”. I like to talk on two points:

1) Our society should be more egalitarian.
2) The elected leaders should represent the people.

Wages
What is being egalitarian? It is being more equal. It means that the gap between the rich and poor should be narrower. In the past 10 to 20 years, the gap has widened.

We know how much the high income earners earn each year. Salaries of $1 million, $2 million, $5 million or $10 million are quite common in Singapore, in the business sector. Even our government leaders earn more than $1 million in salaries, as they are benchmark against the top earners.

I do not mind people earning higher salaries, if they are able to build the economic pie. But, the economic pie must be fairly shared with the other members of society.

I am worried that the low income earners are not earning enough to make a decent living. Many people have to work hard on two jobs, and they hardly earn enough to survive, to meet their monthly expenses. It is important that the salaries of the low income earners should be raised.

In many countries, there is a minimum wage that is tied to the cost of living. Everybody working a decent day’s work should receive a wage that is sufficient to pay for their living expenses, at a frugal level. They are not well off, but they should not starve.

Apart from an adequate wage, we must also give people some security against unemployment, especially if they fall victim without any fault of their own.

In some countries, there is unemployment insurance to give them some benefit for 12 to 24 months. It allows them to adjust a period to adjust. This type of payment ensures that they can continue to pay their mortgage and meet their living expenses for a period of time. They do not have to borrow on credit cards or from loan sharks and pay a high rate of interest, which adds to their burden.

Even America, which is the champion of the free market system, has a minimum wage for their workers. It also has an unemployment insurance scheme that makes payment for 12 months or slightly longer.

Singapore has schemes such as the workfare and assistance given by the community development council. We need to review the effectiveness of these schemes to make sure that they are able to address the real problems. I suspect that these schemes take a lot of work to administer and do not provide adequate assistance to the people in need.

Represent the people
Our elected leaders can represent the people and be the voice of the people. This requires the leaders to be freely elected at the general and by-elections. We should move back to the old days when most elections are contested and the candidates have to go out to win over the votes of the people.

The trend in recent years, where many elections at the group representation constituencies (or GRCs) are won through walkovers is not satisfactory. Some members of parliament have never been directly elected for several rounds, as they continue to win through walkovers.

We should move towards smaller GRCs and eventually to move back to the single member constituencies, which was the case in the 1970s and early 1980s. A free election will bond the leaders to the people. It will lead to a more united country. It will go back to the old days when the people are proud to be Singaporeans.

In recent months, more than 10,000 people have lost their hard earned savings by being misled into investing in the mini-bonds and other credit linked notes. They have signed a petition for the authority to carry out an independent investigation into the possible wrong doings by the financial institutions that created and/or marketed the products.

I hope that the authority will act on this petition, which has been signed by nearly 1,000 people. The signatories need to know if their appeals have been heard and have been fairly considered. They also like to know the progress and outcome of the investigation. As the goes, “justice has to be done, and seen to be done”.

Let me wish the very best for the future of our people and nation, and for Singapore.

Tan Kin Lian

Bonus restructure badly affected by the global crisis

Dear Mr, Tan Kin Lian,

I have two concerns about NTUC Income's bonus restructure enforced on policy holders effective last year, 2008.

First Concern
I have been paying about 11 years for an Income endowment policy. If I am not mistaken, my payout from NTUC Income at maturity date, 2011, will probably be badly affected by the recession. Had the bonus not been restructured in 2008, I would have a larger amount locked-in last year because the economy was bouyant in 2007 and the bonus for 2007 is distributed in 2008.

Second Concern
I think policyholders like me should have been allowed an opt out option last year when Income decided to restructure the bonus. This is because when I signed for my policy it was based on a different understanding of the bonus distribution. I have only two years more to pay my premiums so if I understood how my policy is affected by the bonus restructure, I should be allowed to opt out with no penalty. I find I cannot opt out now because of the financial penalty incurred, I have to continue my premium payments for this year and the next.

In conclusion, I expect my worst fears will be realised when I receive notification of downward revision on Income endowment policy after the end of Income's financial year.

I would like to hear from you. Thank you very much, your insights into these concerns I'm sure will be absolutely helpful.

REPLY
I agree with your views. I believe that NTUC Income should have allowed policyholders to make a choice to stay with the old bonus structure.

But the management and board was adament about their right to change the bonus structure and not to give this option. The chairman made a promise at last year's Annual General Meeting about the future bonuses. At that time, the promise was quite reasonable.

Subsequently, the global financial crisis came, and made the situation worse for policyholders - especially with the restructured bonus.

I suggest that you write to the chairman of the board of NTUC Income to express your views. You can also write to MAS.

Advice on lodging complaint on FIDREC

Mr Wang Says So http://mrwangsaysso.blogspot.com/is writing a series of articles on possible lines of arguments that investors could use when they use the FIDREC adjudication process. I urge you to read the articles.

 

The first two articles.

 http://mrwangsaysso.blogspot.com/2009/02/saga-of-structured-notes-what-next-for.html

 http://mrwangsaysso.blogspot.com/2009/02/saga-of-structured-notes-what-next-for_03.html

 

He may be writing other articles.