Soybean Market Conditions Improved in July

Turbulence due to the external environment and pressure from the supply side, domestic soybeans from early May to start a decline, yet to get rid of the current market weakness pattern. But analysts believe the current market momentum has been released short, and even with the price of soybean prices to continue to gradually close down the State Reserve has a very limited space. Since July is the traditional hype about the weather period, together with the peak arrival time has passed domestic soybean imports as well as pig market demand for the gradual recovery impact bottom, analysts believe, Dalian soybean market will be improved gradually after entering in July .

First of all, from the outside of the site concerned, the current decline in U.S. soybean futures had slowed down, brought South American soybean harvest seasonal market pressure to make good the new U.S. soybean cultivation has been reflected in the disk, but the lack of new fundamental supportive news, the market remained sluggish rebound, if good weather continued failure to provide the disadvantaged situation of expected short-term volatility will remain. However, to June 30, the U.S. Department of Agriculture will release a new area of soybean planting and quarterly stocks reports, with the introduction of the report, U.S. soybean acreage basically OK, continued good weather conditions will make the U.S. soybean prices based on the expected high yield basis. Then in the United States Department of Agriculture's supply and demand report released early in July, the fundamentals of basic out negative factors will do. After the July soybean pod filling growth into the critical period of weather conditions on the yield components of importance. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization NOAA6 report released on 3, said the summer of 2010 La Nina weather phenomenon may occur, which would threaten U.S. Midwest growing areas of hot, dry weather. Weather is expected to become the main driving force push prices higher.

Second, the domestic port of arrival of soybean imports in June increased dramatically, imports peaked at 7-August is expected to remain at a high level, but the volume will start to tend to fall too much due to inventory pressure, squeezing oil plant situation poor, domestic procurement schedules in recent months to reduce. Despite the excess supply of domestic soybean pressure stage of the spot market would still constrain, but later fell to the volume of the market or pessimism on the bean market has improved. In addition, affected by over-supply situation, domestic pork prices continue to fall, pig grain from February 2010 compared with 18 consecutive weeks starting below break-even point, pig breeding industry loss for the year 2000 the most serious one, farmers will take the initiative or passive reduction of breeding stock, while the outbreak of the epidemic in some areas also led directly to a decline in livestock on hand. According to the Ministry of Agriculture statistics show that China can be complicated sow and pig breeding stock to open this year, have since shown a downward trend, which will allow the future to reduce the supply of domestic pigs. According to progressive reduction in pig breeding and the time period, is now entering a cyclical breeding pigs 'trough' expected in June the price will run on low, and by 7-8 months, or to start some recovery in prices, because after nearly months of concentrated slaughter and Bulan lag, when the domestic pork supply will be affected, together with corn prices lower farming costs down, the turning point of the domestic pig market is expected to occur in 7-8 months, in the second half market will gradually turn for the better will drive the demand for soybean meal and other feed, a favorable impact on the soybean market.

Finally, the Northeast of the new production areas for soybean weather there is a big uncertainty. The new production area of soybean planting is over and now continuing in Heilongjiang Province in fine weather conditions conducive to the emergence and growth of new work. However, most of the recent Northeast continued fine and hot temperature, maximum temperature in some areas over the same period in the history record, the drought has outcrop trend. Since the ecology and agriculture of Heilongjiang Meteorological Center noted that, since early days of hot dry June, most of the late rainfall agricultural areas less than one calendar year to Jiucheng, Heilongjiang Province, currently there are Plain, Sanjiang plain and other places in 27 counties dry soil in partial state. Dry hot weather increased soil moisture evaporation, the rise in parts of signs of drought, crop moisture conditions are not conducive to rapid growth of soybean growing or will be affected later, the weather factors that could provide the market with bullish themes.